New York Times gästkrönikör Dan Schnur, informationschef för John McCains valkampanj år 2000, kommenterar Barack Obamas val av Joe Biden som vicepresidentkandidat.. Barack Obama may have announced his running mate this morning, but the Russian prime minister, Vladmir Putin, made the selection for him a couple of weeks ago.
When Russian tanks rumbled into Georgia earlier this month, it served as a stark reminder to voters that knowledge of foreign policy and national security would be critical in the selection of their next president. Unlike the Iraq war, where many Americans decided that simply opposing the Bush agenda was an acceptable substitute for traditional global experience, the crisis in Georgia was the first foreign policy flashpoint of the post-Bush era, where the candidates were asked to react with the same immediacy as the president. The result was to raise the stakes for Obama and to increase the importance of a running mate with the extensive biography of Sen. Joe Biden.
Biden was a smart selection, but this decision also illustrates how much the race has changed over the last several weeks. Picking either Tim Kaine, governor of Virginia, or Indiana senator Evan Bayh would have increased Obama's ability to pick off a traditionally Republican state.
With a 10-point lead, Democrats had the luxury of potentially poaching on GOP turf. But when the polls show a virtual tie, Obama can no longer afford the indulgence of that sort of ambitious strategy. Biden's selection is not directly relevant from an electoral vote standpoint -- Delaware, his home state, is safely blue. But the Scranton, Pa., native can help in that key swing state, and his ability to connect with working-class voters will give Obama a boost in Ohio, Michigan and other Rust Belt states.
Biden will also bring an aggressive approach with which Obama has not been comfortable and will take the lead on Democratic assaults on John McCain. While Biden will almost certainly talk too much on the campaign trail and have to offer at least a few "clarifications" for overheated comments he makes, he brings a necessary dose of toughness to the ticket.
His selection will probably finish off Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty's chances to be McCain's vice presidential nominee, since it's unlikely that McCain would send the relatively inexperienced Pawlenty into a debate with Biden. That said, Biden does create some difficulties for Barack Obama. The McCain campaign has released an ad quoting Biden from earlier this year in which he questions the Illinois senator's readiness to be president.
When your own running mate suggests that you need "on the job training," it creates a convenient talking point for an opposition party already heavily invested in that argument.
It's also worth keeping an eye on Hillary Clinton. Its been reported that she was never asked to provide documentation for vice presidential vetting, suggesting that she was never seriously considered for the ticket. Her supporters are already fuming that Obama did not call either her or her husband to inform them of the selection.
And the statement she released calling Biden a "purposeful choice" raises the question of the extent of her emotional commitment to Obama's victory and whether she'll devote any more effort to the ticket than what's necessary to avoid blame in case of a defeat.
Just as important as the identity of the running mate, though, was the manner in which it was announced. Obama's election depends on increased turnout, particularly among young voters. The electricity that motivated his grassroots followers and volunteers early in the primary season seems to have subsided in recent months.
Informing them directly by text message reminds them of their importance to the effort and will reinvigorate them heading into the convention and the general election campaign.
It also creates a useful contrast with McCain, who has admitted that he does not use e-mail, and reinforces the future versus the past contrast that the Democrats will hammer throughout the fall. And there's more than a little bit of irony that the same opponent who used the prospect of a 3 a.m. phone call to attack Obama last spring learned that she would not be his running mate from a similarly timed text message this morning.
All in all, Joe Biden was a smart decision. But it reflects the new realities imposed by a political landscape that's much different and more difficult than the one that gained Barack Obama the nomination just a few months ago.