Science editor predicts Nobel Prize winners

Repeating the success I had last year, when I predicted two of the three Nobel Prize winners in a column, will obviously be tough. But I'm giving it a go once again.

Please note that what follows is pure speculation. It's not true that I have inside knowledge from the Prize committees, even though two of them thought so last year.

A favourite for the medicine prize would have to be the human body's "thermometer", which has been circled by several scientists only the last decade. It's an entire system of separate receptors, each of which is specialised within its temperature span. The cold receptor is also sensitive to mint, while the heat receptor is responsive to pain and the strong substances in chili powder. Just this week a possible new pain medicine based on these discoveries was presented. American David Julius and Israel's Baruch Minke are likely candidates.

Another darling discovery are the mirror neurons, the special nerve cells behind our capacity for empathy. But it's perhaps a little too early for that one.

More likely are Americans Ernest McCullough and James Till, who found the stem cells. Their feat made it possible to treat leukaemia with bone marrow transplants. Nowadays, a long list of illnesses are treated in similar ways, and stem cells have become a huge field of research.

Americans Elizabeth Blackburn and Carol Greider are another alternative. To begin with, it would help the Nobel committees improve on their terrible gender statistics. Blackburn and Greider discovered telomerase, the enzyme that keeps the cells young. They also located the telomeres the chromosome ends that get shorter and shorter the older we get. An important contribution both to cancer and aging research.

For the last couple of years I have guessed that Japans Sumio Iijima would win the chemistry prize (or maybe the physics prize) for his tiny carbon nanotubes, but not anymore. Last spring Iijima received the Aminoff prize, which is also awarded by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. On top of that it's obscure as to who actually came first with the discovery. There are Russians and Americans who could lay claim to it.

But there is another possible Japanese - Akihisa Inoue, who invented metallic glass. Liquid or glass-like, or more correctly amorphous A-metals have characteristics completely different to those of ordinary metals. They are lighter, stronger and more shock-absorbing, with a glass-like ringing sound to them. For the tennis elite, there are already rackets made out of metallic glass, and both the telecom and car industries are outlining for mass productions. Imagine swishing down the street on an ultra-light metallic glass bicycle!

Can we hope that the committee for physics once again this year rewards a discovery within astronomy that broadens our horizons and fascinates the public? If so the pick could be the astronomers who discovered the first exoplanets planets outside of our Solar System. Pole Alexander Wolszczan and Canadian Dale Frail were the first. Switzerland's Michel Mayor and Didier Queloz were also pioneers twelve years ago.

Or why not a pick of meteorology, now that climate research has become central in world politics. Edward Lorenz would be an obvious choice then. His mathematical chaos theories are central to the weather models of climate researchers. The committee would have to hurry, because Lorenz is a very old man.